Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
