Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Propels Villa's Unlikely Title Charge

It was eight weeks prior when the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or the reason for the side's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

A Touchline Reaction of Joy

In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. When Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?

It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding in many games, even as the victories have piled up.

Per the data, in only two games has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team which has just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping Rogers to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, bent just inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

An Unstoppable Force

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition had more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.

A reversion to average might be the biggest rival the club will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.

  • The main striker may begin to scoring again.
  • The attacking talent may rediscover the player he resembled in Germany.
  • The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.

This could contain the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.

This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.

Joseph Rice
Joseph Rice

A seasoned sports analyst with over a decade of experience in football betting strategies and statistical modeling.