Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
